Shandong Luneng 0–0 Henan Jianye: Result & Stats

Shandong Luneng

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Henan Jianye

2/23/2025

Super League · Round 1Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Shandong Luneng52%

×Draw23%

Henan Jianye25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchHenan Jianye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.18

Shandong Luneng

1.81

Henan Jianye

1.18

Shandong Luneng creates 53% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.04

creates per match

1.47

0.88

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

2.04

Henan Jianye

1.47

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

0.88

Henan Jianye

1.59

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.74scores more

Henan Jianye-0.56scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Henan Jianye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

75%

Shandong Luneng or Henan Jianye

77%

Draw or Henan Jianye

48%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

29%

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

84%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

54%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

27%

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

69%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

33%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

68%

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.88 · 9 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.59 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 2.04 + Henan Jianye defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

Henan Jianye attack 1.47 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

52%

level

23%

Henan Jianye scores more

25%

Shandong Luneng at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff