Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye — FA Cup 2019

Shandong Luneng
Shandong Lunengadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
8/21/2024FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finalsJinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Shandong Luneng51%
×Draw25%
Henan Jianye24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shandong Luneng
1.56
Henan Jianye
0.99

Shandong Luneng creates 58% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

creates per match

Shandong Luneng
1.88
Henan Jianye
1.42

allows per match

Shandong Luneng
0.56
Henan Jianye
1.25

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par
Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw
76%
Shandong Luneng or Henan Jianye
75%
Draw or Henan Jianye
49%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
26%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
79%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
46%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
21%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
63%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
26%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
68%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.88 + Henan Jianye defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Henan Jianye attack 1.42 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more
51%
level
25%
Henan Jianye scores more
24%

Shandong Luneng at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye

Shandong Luneng beat Henan Jianye 3-1 in FA Cup on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Ji'nan.