Shandong Luneng 1–3 Chengdu Better City

Shandong Luneng

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Chengdu Better City

Gazal 53'

T. Chow 82' (pen)

Rômulo 60', 39'

6/20/2025

FA Cup · 4th RoundJinan Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Shandong Luneng41%

×Draw26%

Chengdu Better City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchChengdu Better City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.24

Shandong Luneng

1.40

Chengdu Better City

1.24

Shandong Luneng creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

1.88

creates per match

1.92

0.56

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

1.88

Chengdu Better City

1.92

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

0.56

Chengdu Better City

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Chengdu Better City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

67%

Shandong Luneng or Chengdu Better City

74%

Draw or Chengdu Better City

59%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

19%

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

75%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

41%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

17%

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

71%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

35%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

55%

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.88 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.40

Chengdu Better City attack 1.92 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

41%

level

26%

Chengdu Better City scores more

33%

Shandong Luneng at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Zeca

39'

Rômulo

46'

Xie Wenneng← Chen Pu

46'

Cryzan← Guilherme Madruga

53'

Gazal

55'

T. Chow

60'

Gazal

60'

Rômulo

63'

Wei Shihao

65'

Qazaishvili Valeri← Zheng Zheng

65'

Liu Yang← Liu Binbin

72'

Y. Li

72'

Bi Jinhao← Zeca

82'

T. ChowPenalty

84'

Yang Shuai← Li Yang

89'

Wang Dongsheng← Rômulo

89'

Li Moyu← Gan Chao

90'

Liao Rongxiang← Wei Shihao

Shandong

Chengdu

32

Dianzuo

26

Mincheng

18

Pengfei

22

▼

Yang

11

Yahav

16

Ming-Yang

10

Romulo

39

▼

Chao

8

Tim

9

Silva

7

▼

Shihao

14

Dalei

33

Zhunyi

4

⚽

Gazal

27

Ke

5

▼

Zheng

35

Zhengyu

8

▼

Madruga

21

▼

Binbin

22

Yuanyi

29

▼

Pu

19

▼

Zeca

Manager: Kang-Hee Choi

46'▲Xie Wenneng←▼Chen Pu

46'▲Cryzan←▼Guilherme Madruga

65'▲Qazaishvili Valeri←▼Zheng Zheng

65'▲Liu Yang←▼Liu Binbin

72'▲Bi Jinhao←▼Zeca

Shandong Luneng substitutes

3Jinhao10Valeri11Yang23Wenneng9Cryzan1Jinyong18Yongtao25Xinli13Chi6Tong17Xinghan31Jianfei

Manager: Jung-Won Seo

84'▲Yang Shuai←▼Li Yang

89'▲Wang Dongsheng←▼Rômulo

89'▲Li Moyu←▼Gan Chao

90'▲Liao Rongxiang←▼Wei Shihao

Chengdu Better City substitutes

58Rongxiang17Dongsheng48Moyu28Shuai14Weifeng29Mutellip20Miao25Murahmetjan5Timo15Dinghao3Xin19Yanfeng