Shandong Luneng 0–3 Chengdu Better City

Shandong Luneng

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Chengdu Better City

Felipe Silva 68'

Romulo 45'

Yuan Mincheng 5'

4/2/2025

Super League · Round 4Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Shandong Luneng41%

×Draw24%

Chengdu Better City35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchChengdu Better City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.45

Shandong Luneng

1.57

Chengdu Better City

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

1.90

creates per match

1.77

1.13

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

1.90

Chengdu Better City

1.77

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

1.13

Chengdu Better City

1.24

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.43scores more

Chengdu Better City+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Chengdu Better City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

65%

Shandong Luneng or Chengdu Better City

76%

Draw or Chengdu Better City

59%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

20%

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

79%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

46%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

21%

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

77%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

42%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

53%

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.13 · 27 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.24 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.90 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

Chengdu Better City attack 1.77 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

41%

level

24%

Chengdu Better City scores more

35%

Shandong Luneng at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Romulo

Chengdu Better City · M

8.7

Match Events

5'

Yuan Mincheng↳ T. Chow

22'

23'

27'

36'

42'

45'

46'

V. Qazaishvili← Xie Wenneng

46'

Guilherme Madruga← Peng Xinli

46'

Y. Li← Han Pengfei

55'

Tim Chow

60'

Dinghao Yan

65'

Zhao Jianfei← Zheng Zheng

68'

Felipe Silva

71'

Zhang Chi← Chen Pu

71'

Bi Jinhao← Shi Songchen

76'

Yang Shuai← T. Letschert

77'

Liao Lisheng← Felipe Silva

81'

Yang LiuPenalty cancelled

84'

Yang Liu

84'

Yang Liu

90'

Gan Chao← Yan Dinghao

90'

Wang Dongsheng← Romulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShandongChengdu

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots19

0.78Expected Goals (xG)2.48

6Corners11

14Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots19

2On Target8

4Off Target8

4Blocked3

4Inside Box13

6Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

337Total Passes359

257Accurate Passes268

76%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1