Chengdu Better City 2–1 Shandong Luneng

Chengdu Better City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shandong Luneng

Felipe Silva 66', 28'

V. Qazaishvili 31'

8/2/2025

Super League · Round 19Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Chengdu Better City52%

×Draw22%

Shandong Luneng26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.34

Chengdu Better City

1.96

Shandong Luneng

1.34

Chengdu Better City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

2.27

creates per match

1.77

0.91

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

2.27

Shandong Luneng

1.77

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.91

Shandong Luneng

1.65

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.10scores less

Shandong Luneng-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

74%

Chengdu Better City or Shandong Luneng

78%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

48%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

30%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

86%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

58%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

31%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

74%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

39%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

66%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.91 · 29 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.65 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.27 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.96

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

52%

level

22%

Shandong Luneng scores more

26%

Chengdu Better City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Felipe Silva

Chengdu Better City · F

8.9

Match Events

23'

Yang Liu

28'

Felipe Silva↳ Y. Gurfinkel

31'

V. Qazaishvili↳ Liu Yang

46'

R. Merkies← Cryzan

46'

Wu Xinghan← Liu Yang

58'

Dalei WangCard upgrade

59'

Dalei Wang

61'

Yu Jinyong← Guilherme Madruga

66'

Felipe Silva↳ T. Chow

78'

Liu Binbin← Chen Pu

80'

Wang Dongsheng← Gan Chao

86'

Y. Dong← Yuan Mincheng

87'

Liao Rongxiang← Felipe Silva

88'

Y. Peng← Xie Wenneng

90+1'

Yan Dinghao← Yang Ming-Yang

90+1'

Han Pengfei← Y. Li

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChengduShandong

Overview

60%Possession40%

24Total Shots3

2.46Expected Goals (xG)0.88

7Corners2

10Fouls8

Shots

24Total Shots3

9On Target1

8Off Target0

7Blocked2

18Inside Box1

6Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

589Total Passes405

527Accurate Passes334

89%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1