Shams Azar Qazvin 3–1 Fajr Sepasi: Result & Stats

Shams Azar Qazvin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Fajr Sepasi

M. Mohammadi 66'

P. Sarabadani 42'

R. Jafari 15'

S. J. Abdi 63'

2/25/2023

Azadegan League · Round 23Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin51%

×Draw26%

Fajr Sepasi23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shams Azar QazvinExpected goals in this matchFajr Sepasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.92

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.51

Fajr Sepasi

0.92

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 64% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 83 away

2.20

creates per match

1.04

0.80

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

2.20

Fajr Sepasi

1.04

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.80

Fajr Sepasi

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Fajr Sepasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw

77%

Shams Azar Qazvin or Fajr Sepasi

74%

Draw or Fajr Sepasi

49%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

26%

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

78%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

44%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

19%

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

60%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

23%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

69%

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.82 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.51

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.04 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

51%

level

26%

Fajr Sepasi scores more

23%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

R. Jafari

42'

P. Sarabadani

63'

S. J. Abdi

66'

M. Mohammadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff