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Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
9/28/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fajr Sepasi47%
×Draw29%
Shams Azar Qazvin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.25
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.81

Fajr Sepasi creates 54% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.52
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.13

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.97

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
76%
Fajr Sepasi or Shams Azar Qazvin
71%
Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin
53%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
21%
Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
71%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
36%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
13%
Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
56%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
19%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
66%
Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.50 · 84 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.52 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
47%
level
29%
Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
24%

Fajr Sepasi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin

Fajr Sepasi beat Shams Azar Qazvin 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.