Fajr Sepasi vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Persian Gulf Pro League 2025
Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 22Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Fajr Sepasi34%
Shams Azar Qazvin32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 26 home / 41 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under75
- Over25
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No66
- Yes34
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fajr Sepasi ↓
Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches
Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fajr Sepasi attack 0.69 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.88
Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.78 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 34%?"
Fajr Sepasi at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 34% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Shams Azar Qazvin substitutes
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Sepahan FC
Esteghlal FC
Chadormalu SC
Gol Gohar
Tractor Sazi
Persepolis FC
Foolad FCFajr Sepasi
Kheybar Khorramabad
Malavan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
PaykanShams Azar Qazvin
Aluminium Arak
ZOB Ahan
Mes RafsanjanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fajr Sepasi host Shams Azar Qazvin on Friday, 20 February 2026 at 15:15. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 season.
Persian Gulf Pro League: Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin
Fajr Sepasi beat Shams Azar Qazvin 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 20, 2026.
Goals: M. Sharifi (90' pen).