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Shakhter Soligorsk vs Bate Borisov — Premier League 2018

Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
5/11/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Stadyen Budaŭnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Shakhter Soligorsk42%
×Draw27%
Bate Borisov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.39
Bate Borisov
1.16

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 123 away

creates per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
Bate Borisov
1.49

allows per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
0.83
Bate Borisov
0.95

finishing

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par
Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Soligorsk ↓

Bate Borisov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shakhter Soligorsk or draw
69%
Shakhter Soligorsk or Bate Borisov
73%
Draw or Bate Borisov
58%

Winning margin

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
20%
Bate Borisov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
75%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
40%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
16%
Bate Borisov 1+ goals
69%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
32%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
57%
Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Soligorsk at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 101 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.95 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.83 + Bate Borisov defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bate Borisov attack 1.49 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
42%
level
27%
Bate Borisov scores more
31%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shakhter Soligorsk 1–3 Bate Borisov

Bate Borisov beat Shakhter Soligorsk 3-1 in Premier League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Budaŭnik in Soligorsk.