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Bate Borisov vs Shakhter Soligorsk — Premier League 2018

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
9/27/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Bate Borisov39%
×Draw26%
Shakhter Soligorsk35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 104 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
1.87
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.52

allows per match

Bate Borisov
1.08
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Shakhter Soligorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
65%
Bate Borisov or Shakhter Soligorsk
74%
Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk
61%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
18%
Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
75%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
40%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
16%
Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
73%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
37%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
52%
Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

Shakhter Soligorsk away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.87 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.52 + Bate Borisov defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
39%
level
26%
Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
35%

Bate Borisov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bate Borisov 1–1 Shakhter Soligorsk

Bate Borisov and Shakhter Soligorsk drew 1-1 in Premier League on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Borisov.