Bate Borisov 0–2 Shakhter Soligorsk: Result & Stats

Bate Borisov

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhter Soligorsk

8/28/2022

Premier League · Round 19Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Bate Borisov39%

×Draw26%

Shakhter Soligorsk35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bate BorisovExpected goals in this matchShakhter Soligorsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.31

Bate Borisov

1.39

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 102 away

1.87

creates per match

1.54

1.08

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Bate Borisov

1.87

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.54

allows per match

Bate Borisov

1.08

Shakhter Soligorsk

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Shakhter Soligorsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw

65%

Bate Borisov or Shakhter Soligorsk

74%

Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk

61%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

18%

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

75%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

40%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

16%

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals

73%

Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals

38%

Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

52%

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

Shakhter Soligorsk away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.90 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.87 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.54 + Bate Borisov defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bate Borisov scores more

39%

level

26%

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more

35%

Bate Borisov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff