Shakhter Karagandy 2–3 Kaspiy: Result & Stats

Shakhter Karagandy

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Kaspiy

T. Rudoselskiy 90'

A. Nusip 72'

B. Baytana 87'

B. Kabylan 66'

Z. Kozhamberdy 20'

7/11/2025

1. Division · Round 13Shakhter Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy54%

×Draw21%

Kaspiy25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter KaragandyExpected goals in this matchKaspiy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.36

Shakhter Karagandy

2.11

Kaspiy

1.36

Shakhter Karagandy creates 55% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

3.06

creates per match

2.06

0.67

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy

3.06

Kaspiy

2.06

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy

0.67

Kaspiy

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Kaspiy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

Kaspiy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw

75%

Shakhter Karagandy or Kaspiy

79%

Draw or Kaspiy

46%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

33%

Kaspiy wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

88%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

62%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

35%

Kaspiy 1+ goals

74%

Kaspiy 2+ goals

39%

Kaspiy 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

69%

Kaspiy (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Kaspiy away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 3.06 + Kaspiy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 2.11

Kaspiy attack 2.06 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

54%

level

21%

Kaspiy scores more

25%

Shakhter Karagandy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shakhter Karagandy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

T. Kurbanov

20'

Z. Kozhamberdy↳ M. Turlybek

26'

A. Nusip

32'

E. Kadyrbaev

40'

S. Zubaydilda

46'

U. Mukhametzhanov← A. Israilov

49'

51'

59'

66'

69'

S. Shamshi← B. Kabylan

69'

A. Armenov← M. Turlybek

72'

A. Nusip

73'

M. Komikov← A. Nusip

73'

A. Altynkhan← S. Zubaydilda

80'

N. Abdulla← Z. Kozhamberdy

84'

M. Komikov

87'

B. Baytana

90+1'

S. Kulakhmetov← B. Konlimkos

90+1'

M. Shakhmetov← B. Baytana

90'

T. Rudoselskiy↳ A. Altynkhan

Shakhter

Kaspiy

20

14

5

4

22

7

⚽

▼

Kabylan

13

Serikbay

47

▼

Konlimkos

10

⚽

▼

Baytana

23

⚽

▼

Kozhamber

71

A

▼

Turlybek

30

Shatskiy

15

Savkiv

66

▼

Israilov

4

▼

Zubaydild

17

Saidov

11

Galkin

7

⚽

▼

Nusip

8

Ospanov

36

Shymyrkha

44

⚽

Rudoselsk

10

Kalybayev

46'▲U. Mukhametzhanov←▼A. Israilov

73'▲M. Komikov←▼A. Nusip

73'▲A. Altynkhan←▼S. Zubaydilda

Shakhter Karagandy substitutes

27Dilmurat25Kholod23Nurmugamet21Dilmurat20Komikov18Altynkhan16Nurgaliev13Migunov12Mukhametzhanov2Alimkhan

Manager: R. Esatov

69'▲S. Shamshi←▼B. Kabylan

69'▲A. Armenov←▼M. Turlybek

80'▲N. Abdulla←▼Z. Kozhamberdy

90+1'▲S. Kulakhmetov←▼B. Konlimkos

90+1'▲M. Shakhmetov←▼B. Baytana

Kaspiy substitutes

90Islam70Abdulla48Zhumabay18Kulakhmetov17Shamshi11Nurgaliyev9Armenov6Shakhmetov1Ayazbaev