Kaspiy 3–2 Shakhter Karagandy: Result & Stats

Kaspiy

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shakhter Karagandy

E. Nurgaliyev 90'

M. Turlybek 53'

B. Kabylan 29'

A. Litosh 46'

A. Nusip 40'

10/17/2025

1. Division · Round 25Zhestar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kaspiy50%

×Draw21%

Shakhter Karagandy29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaspiyExpected goals in this matchShakhter Karagandy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.52

Kaspiy

2.06

Shakhter Karagandy

1.52

Kaspiy creates 36% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 21 away

2.84

creates per match

1.95

1.10

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Kaspiy

2.84

Shakhter Karagandy

1.95

allows per match

Kaspiy

1.10

Shakhter Karagandy

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw

71%

Kaspiy or Shakhter Karagandy

79%

Draw or Shakhter Karagandy

50%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+

29%

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals

87%

Kaspiy 2+ goals

61%

Kaspiy 3+ goals

34%

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

78%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

45%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)

64%

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 2.84 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.06

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.95 + Kaspiy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kaspiy scores more

50%

level

21%

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

29%

Kaspiy at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kaspiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

B. Kabylan↳ M. Turlybek

31'

S. Zubaydilda

40'

A. Nusip

46'

B. Konlimkos← B. Baytana

46'

M. Taykenov← D. Aripov

46'

A. Litosh↳ M. Galkin

53'

M. Turlybek↳ Z. Kozhamberdy

56'

S. Shymyrkhan← A. Israilov

65'

M. Serikbay

68'

S. Shamshi← Z. Kozhamberdy

68'

E. Nurgaliyev← B. Kabylan

81'

A. Armenov← M. Turlybek

81'

E. Saidov← M. Dilmurat

82'

M. Komikov← A. Litosh

82'

Z. Kairkenov← U. Mukhametzhanov

90'

A. Nusip

90'

E. Nurgaliyev↳ B. Konlimkos

Kaspiy

Shakhter

55

15

4

44

27

▼

Dilmurat

18

Altynkhan

12

▼

Mukhametz

11

A

Galkin

66

▼

Israilov

7

⚽

Nusip

26

⚽

▼

Litosh

20

Pasechenk

14

Serikbay

71

⚽A

▼

Turlybek

2

Aslan

21

▼

Aripov

10

▼

Baytana

13

Serikbay

22

Kurbanov

7

⚽

▼

Kabylan

23

A

▼

Kozhamber

91

Aytbaev

Manager: R. Esatov

46'▲B. Konlimkos←▼B. Baytana

46'▲M. Taykenov←▼D. Aripov

68'▲S. Shamshi←▼Z. Kozhamberdy

68'▲E. Nurgaliyev←▼B. Kabylan

81'▲A. Armenov←▼M. Turlybek

Kaspiy substitutes

60Kaldybay50Zholaman48Zhumabay47Konlimkos28Oralbay19Taykenov17Shamshi11Nurgaliyev9Armenov8Raskatov5Taipov4Kadyrbaev

56'▲S. Shymyrkhan←▼A. Israilov

81'▲E. Saidov←▼M. Dilmurat

82'▲M. Komikov←▼A. Litosh

82'▲Z. Kairkenov←▼U. Mukhametzhanov

Shakhter Karagandy substitutes

42Maratov36Shymyrkhan29Takhanov25Kholod22Asylbaev21Dilmurat20Komikov19Kairkenov17Saidov16Nurgaliev3Zaynetdinov