Kaspiy 1–1 Shakhter Karagandy: Result & Stats

Kaspiy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhter Karagandy

G. Pantsulaia 72' (pen)

T. Chogadze 55'

5/27/2023

Premier League · Round 11Stadion Jas kanat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kaspiy47%

×Draw26%

Shakhter Karagandy28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaspiyExpected goals in this matchShakhter Karagandy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.11

Kaspiy

1.52

Shakhter Karagandy

1.11

Kaspiy creates 37% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 64 away

1.27

creates per match

0.92

1.31

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Kaspiy

1.27

Shakhter Karagandy

0.92

allows per match

Kaspiy

1.31

Shakhter Karagandy

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw

72%

Kaspiy or Shakhter Karagandy

74%

Draw or Shakhter Karagandy

53%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+

23%

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals

78%

Kaspiy 2+ goals

45%

Kaspiy 3+ goals

20%

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

67%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

30%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)

63%

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.77 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 1.27 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shakhter Karagandy attack 0.92 + Kaspiy defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kaspiy scores more

47%

level

26%

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

28%

Kaspiy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kaspiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

T. Chogadze

60'

B. Kabylan← V. Armanavičius

60'

A. Tattybaev← I. Sviridov

60'

R. Tutkyshev← A. Nazymkhanov

70'

A. Diakhate

70'

A. Tolordava

72'

S. Bukorac

72'

G. PantsulaiaPenalty

77'

R. Brigido

85'

A. Abdulla← E. Ališauskas

85'

A. Tiuliubay← B. Savkiv

87'

S. Krapukhin← G. Pantsulaia

90+4'

D. Berdibek← D. Usenov

90+4'

T. Redzhepov← M. Taykenov

90+1'

G. Zakharenko← Y. Pertsukh

Kaspiy

Shakhter

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Pantsulai

Manager: I. Angelovski

60'▲B. Kabylan←▼V. Armanavičius

87'▲S. Krapukhin←▼G. Pantsulaia

90+4'▲D. Berdibek←▼D. Usenov

90+4'▲T. Redzhepov←▼M. Taykenov

Kaspiy substitutes

KabylanKrapukhinBerdibekRedzhepovZaleskiyTokotaevJighauriBekeshov

Manager: I. Soloshenko

60'▲A. Tattybaev←▼I. Sviridov

60'▲R. Tutkyshev←▼A. Nazymkhanov

85'▲A. Abdulla←▼E. Ališauskas

85'▲A. Tiuliubay←▼B. Savkiv

90+1'▲G. Zakharenko←▼Y. Pertsukh

Shakhter Karagandy substitutes

TattybaevTutkyshevAbdullaTiuliubayZakharenkoBlokhinMurtazayevMukhametzhanovTsuprikov

Match Recap: Kaspiy vs Shakhter Karagandy

Kaspiy and Shakhter Karagandy drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 27, 2023.

Goals: T. Chogadze (55'), G. Pantsulaia (72' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Jas kanat in Aktau.

Kaspiy vs Shakhter Karagandy — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kaspiy vs Shakhter Karagandy