Shakhtar Donetsk 1–2 Lech Poznan: Result & Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lech Poznan

J. Moutinho 67' (OG)

M. Ishak 45' (pen), 13'

3/19/2026

UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk22%

×Draw25%

Lech Poznan54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar DonetskExpected goals in this matchLech Poznan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.61

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.92

Lech Poznan

1.61

Lech Poznan creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

0.73

creates per match

2.09

1.14

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.73

Lech Poznan

2.09

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.14

Lech Poznan

1.10

+0.60scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.60scores more

Lech Poznan-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Lech Poznan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

46%

Shakhtar Donetsk or Lech Poznan

75%

Draw or Lech Poznan

78%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

7%

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

60%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

23%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

7%

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

80%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

48%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

29%

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.14 · 6 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.73 + Lech Poznan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Lech Poznan attack 2.09 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

22%

level

25%

Lech Poznan scores more

54%

Lech Poznan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Ishak

Lech Poznan · F

8.3

Match Events

13'

M. Ishak↳ T. Ismaheel

45+5'

Luis PalmaPenalty confirmed

45'

M. IshakPenalty

46'

J. Pereira← R. Gumny

49'

Alaa Ghram

62'

Isaque Silva← Y. Nazaryna

67'

J. MoutinhoOwn goal

68'

A. Gholizadeh← T. Ismaheel

68'

L. Bengtsson← L. Palma

77'

P. Walemark← P. Rodriguez

80'

L. Traore← Kaua Elias

80'

Lucas Ferreira← Alisson

83'

Y. Agnero← G. Thordarson

85'

90+7'

90+7'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShakhtarLech

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots15

0.43Expected Goals (xG)2.22

4Corners5

10Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots15

1On Target7

6Off Target5

3Blocked3

6Inside Box11

4Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

481Total Passes378

424Accurate Passes310

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

-0.86Goals Prevented-0.86

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan beat Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on March 19, 2026.

Goals: M. Ishak (13', 45' pen), J. Moutinho (67' o.g.).

Shakhtar Donetsk controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Krakow.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Lech Poznan — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Lech Poznan