Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Lech Poznan35%
Shakhtar Donetsk39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 8 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lech Poznan ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lech Poznan at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.15 · 8 matches
Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lech Poznan attack 1.50 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29
Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.63 + Lech Poznan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Shakhtar Donetsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Lech Poznan substitutes
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Strasbourg
Raków Częstochowa
AEK Athens FC
Sparta Praha
Rayo VallecanoShakhtar Donetsk
FSV Mainz 05
AEK Larnaca
Lausanne
Crystal PalaceLech Poznan
Samsunspor
Celje
AZ Alkmaar
Fiorentina
HNK Rijeka
Jagiellonia
Omonia Nicosia
FC Noah
Drita
KuPS
Shkendija
Zrinjski
Sigma Olomouc
Universitatea Craiova
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Dynamo Kyiv
Legia Warszawa
Slovan Bratislava
Breidablik
Shamrock Rovers
BK Hacken
Hamrun Spartans
Shelbourne
Aberdeen
Rapid ViennaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Lech Poznan host Shakhtar Donetsk on Thursday, 12 March 2026 at 17:45. The match is part of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2026/2027 season.
UEFA Europa Conference League: Lech Poznan 1–3 Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Lech Poznan 3-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on March 12, 2026.
Goals: Marlon Gomes (36'), Newerton (48'), M. Ishak (70'), Isaque Silva (85').
Shakhtar Donetsk controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 8.
The match was played at Stadion Poznan in Poznan.