Lech Poznan 1–3 Shakhtar Donetsk: Result & Stats

Lech Poznan

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Shakhtar Donetsk

M. Gurgul 66'

K. Toirov 55' (pen)

A. Bondarenko 42'

O. Zubkov 22'

1/25/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Lech Poznan26%

×Draw23%

Shakhtar Donetsk50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech PoznanExpected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.81

Lech Poznan

1.25

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.81

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 45% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.58

creates per match

2.45

1.17

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Lech Poznan

1.58

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.45

allows per match

Lech Poznan

1.17

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw

50%

Lech Poznan or Shakhtar Donetsk

77%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk

74%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

11%

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

71%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

36%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

13%

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

84%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

54%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

34%

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.45, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 1.58 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.45 + Lech Poznan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lech Poznan scores more

26%

level

23%

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

50%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

23'

26'

42'

44'

55'

K. ToirovPenalty

66'

M. Gurgul

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff