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Shakhtar Donetsk vs AZ Alkmaar — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetskadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Alisson 83', 81'
Pedrinho 72'
4/9/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finalsSynerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk34%
×Draw30%
AZ Alkmaar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtar Donetsk
1.04
AZ Alkmaar
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
0.79
AZ Alkmaar
0.87

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
1.29
AZ Alkmaar
1.29

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.81scores more
AZ Alkmaar+0.33scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw
64%
Shakhtar Donetsk or AZ Alkmaar
70%
Draw or AZ Alkmaar
66%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
13%
AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
65%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
28%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
9%
AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
66%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
29%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
49%
AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.29 · 5 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.29 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.79 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

AZ Alkmaar attack 0.87 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
34%
level
30%
AZ Alkmaar scores more
36%

AZ Alkmaar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
AlissonShakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk · M
9.2

Match Events

24'
A. Bondarenko← Isaque Silva
46'
E. Dijkstra← S. Maikuma
48'
Alexandre Penetra
55'
R. Daal← I. Sadiq
59'
Pedro Henrique
64'
Mees de Wit
72'
Pedrinho
73'
Eguinaldo← Newerton
73'
A. Oufkir← Weslley Patati
74'
L. Traore← Kaua Elias
74'
M. Meerdink← T. Parrott
81'
Alisson
83'
Alisson↳ Eguinaldo
89'
Y. Nazaryna← Pedrinho
89'
Y. Konoplya← Alisson

Possession

51%Shakhtar

Shots

12Shakhtar

Pass accuracy

51%Shakhtar

Statistics

ShakhtarAZ
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots9
0.78Expected Goals (xG)0.49
4Corners7
11Fouls7
Shots
12Total Shots9
6On Target3
2Off Target3
4Blocked3
6Inside Box4
6Outside Box5
Passing
51%Possession49%
455Total Passes429
405Accurate Passes363
89%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-0.58Goals Prevented-0.58
Discipline
11Fouls7
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

UEFA Europa Conference League: Shakhtar Donetsk 3–0 AZ Alkmaar

Shakhtar Donetsk beat AZ Alkmaar 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on April 9, 2026.

Goals: Pedrinho (72'), Alisson (81', 83').

Shakhtar Donetsk controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Krakow.