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AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
R. van Bommel 65'
Y. Barasi 48'
M. de Wit 9'
K. Kelsy 77'
V. Bondar 50'
O. Zubkov 17'
7/8/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark vv Dirkshorn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

AZ Alkmaar36%
×Draw22%
Shakhtar Donetsk41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
2.42
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.50

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.17
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.00

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
59%
AZ Alkmaar or Shakhtar Donetsk
78%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
64%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
18%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
82%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
51%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
24%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
84%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
54%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
47%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.42 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.50 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
36%
level
22%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
41%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. de Wit
11'
J. Odgaard← Y. Barasi
17'
O. Zubkov
46'
M. van Brederode← J. Addai
46'
M. de Wit← J. Esajas
46'
D. de Wit← F. Stam
46'
K. Smit← K. Goudmijn
46'
L. Schouten← P. Koopmeiners
46'
E. Poku← D. Kasius
46'
D. Kwakman← Z. Buurmeester
46'
W. Goes← R. Bazoer
46'
J. Clasie← R. van Bommel
48'
Y. Barasi
50'
V. Bondar
65'
R. van Bommel
77'
K. Kelsy

Statistics

AZShakhtar
Overview
8Corners2

Friendlies Clubs: AZ Alkmaar 3–3 Shakhtar Donetsk

AZ Alkmaar and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2023.

Goals: M. de Wit (9'), O. Zubkov (17'), Y. Barasi (48'), V. Bondar (50'), R. van Bommel (65'), K. Kelsy (77').

The match was played at Sportpark vv Dirkshorn in Dirkshorn.