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AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
M. Sin 80'
I. Jensen 73'
Luca Meirelles 83'
Alisson 58'
4/16/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finalsAFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AZ Alkmaar47%
×Draw23%
Shakhtar Donetsk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
1.79
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.39

AZ Alkmaar creates 29% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
2.24
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.17

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
0.60
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.33

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
70%
AZ Alkmaar or Shakhtar Donetsk
77%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
53%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
25%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
83%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
53%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
26%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
75%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
40%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
61%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.24 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.17 + AZ Alkmaar defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
47%
level
23%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
30%

AZ Alkmaar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
I. JensenAZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar · F
8.7

Match Events

24'
Isaque
31'
Mateo Chávez
33'
Billy van Duijl
35'
Kasper Boogaard
45+2'
Ibrahim Sadiq
46'
A. Oufkir← S. Maikuma
46'
I. Jensen← M. Chavez Garcia
58'
Alisson↳ Kaua Elias
61'
Marlon Gomes← Isaque Silva
61'
Eguinaldo← Alisson
63'
B. Kovacs← M. Meerdink
63'
R. Robbemond← B. van Duijl
70'
Luca Meirelles← Kaua Elias
70'
Lucas Ferreira← Newerton
71'
Vinícius Tobias
73'
I. Jensen
78'
Eguinaldo
80'
M. Sin↳ B. Kovacs
83'
Luca Meirelles↳ Lucas Ferreira
85'
Mykola Matvienko
89'
A. Bondarenko← O. Ocheretko
90+3'
M. Menu← Weslley Patati

Possession

54%AZ

Shots

8AZ

Pass accuracy

50%AZ

Statistics

AZShakhtar
Overview
54%Possession46%
8Total Shots14
0.85Expected Goals (xG)1.51
3Corners3
19Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots14
3On Target6
4Off Target5
1Blocked3
5Inside Box8
3Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
372Total Passes330
285Accurate Passes259
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
-0.54Goals Prevented-0.54
Discipline
19Fouls17
4Yellow Cards4
2Offsides7

Match Recap: AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk

AZ Alkmaar and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on April 16, 2026.

Goals: Alisson (58'), I. Jensen (73'), M. Sin (80'), Luca Meirelles (83').

AZ Alkmaar controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar.