Shabab El Bourj 4–0 Salam Zgharta: Result & Stats

Shabab El Bourj

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Salam Zgharta

4/17/2021

Premier League · Relegation Round - 5Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shabab El Bourj63%

×Draw23%

Salam Zgharta14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab El BourjExpected goals in this matchSalam Zgharta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.71

Shabab El Bourj

1.79

Salam Zgharta

0.71

Shabab El Bourj creates 152% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.33

creates per match

0.47

0.95

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Shabab El Bourj

1.33

Salam Zgharta

0.47

allows per match

Shabab El Bourj

0.95

Salam Zgharta

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab El Bourj ↓

Salam Zgharta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shabab El Bourj or draw

86%

Shabab El Bourj or Salam Zgharta

77%

Draw or Salam Zgharta

37%

Winning margin

Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+

37%

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals

83%

Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals

53%

Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals

26%

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals

51%

Salam Zgharta 2+ goals

16%

Salam Zgharta 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)

82%

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab El Bourj at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Salam Zgharta away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.33 + Salam Zgharta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.79

Salam Zgharta attack 0.47 + Shabab El Bourj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shabab El Bourj scores more

63%

level

23%

Salam Zgharta scores more

14%

Shabab El Bourj at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shabab El Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff