Salam Zgharta 0–3 Shabab El Bourj: Result & Stats

Salam Zgharta

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Shabab El Bourj

10/4/2020

Premier League · Round 1Salam Zgharta Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Salam Zgharta36%

×Draw25%

Shabab El Bourj39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salam ZghartaExpected goals in this matchShabab El Bourj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.48

Salam Zgharta

1.40

Shabab El Bourj

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

0.67

creates per match

1.13

1.83

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Salam Zgharta

0.67

Shabab El Bourj

1.13

allows per match

Salam Zgharta

1.83

Shabab El Bourj

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salam Zgharta ↓

Shabab El Bourj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Salam Zgharta or draw

61%

Salam Zgharta or Shabab El Bourj

75%

Draw or Shabab El Bourj

64%

Winning margin

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+

16%

Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals

75%

Salam Zgharta 2+ goals

41%

Salam Zgharta 3+ goals

17%

Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals

77%

Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals

43%

Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)

48%

Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salam Zgharta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Shabab El Bourj away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salam Zgharta attack 0.67 + Shabab El Bourj defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.13 + Salam Zgharta defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Salam Zgharta scores more

36%

level

25%

Shabab El Bourj scores more

39%

Shabab El Bourj at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shabab El Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff