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Shabab El Bourj vs Salam Zgharta — Premier League 2019

Shabab El Bourj
Shabab El Bourj
CANC
12:30
Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
10/5/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Al Ahed Stadium (Bayrūt (Beirut))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shabab El Bourj63%
×Draw23%
Salam Zgharta14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab El Bourj
1.79
Salam Zgharta
0.71

Shabab El Bourj creates 152% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

creates per match

Shabab El Bourj
1.33
Salam Zgharta
0.47

allows per match

Shabab El Bourj
0.95
Salam Zgharta
2.26

finishing

Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par
Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab El Bourj ↓

Salam Zgharta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shabab El Bourj or draw
86%
Shabab El Bourj or Salam Zgharta
77%
Draw or Salam Zgharta
37%

Winning margin

Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+
37%
Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals
83%
Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals
53%
Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals
26%
Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
51%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
16%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)
82%
Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab El Bourj at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Salam Zgharta away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.33 + Salam Zgharta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.79

Salam Zgharta attack 0.47 + Shabab El Bourj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shabab El Bourj scores more
63%
level
23%
Salam Zgharta scores more
14%

Shabab El Bourj at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shabab El Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shabab El Bourj host Salam Zgharta

October 5, 2019: Shabab El Bourj take on Salam Zgharta in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shabab El Bourj host Salam Zgharta at Al Ahed Stadium (Bayrūt (Beirut)).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.