Seraing United 1–0 KV Mechelen: Result & Stats

Seraing United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

KV Mechelen

M. Mouandilmadji 14'

7/31/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 2Stade du Pairay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Seraing United31%

×Draw26%

KV Mechelen43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seraing UnitedExpected goals in this matchKV Mechelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.46

Seraing United

1.21

KV Mechelen

1.46

KV Mechelen creates 21% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 130 away

0.69

creates per match

1.25

1.67

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Seraing United

0.69

KV Mechelen

1.25

allows per match

Seraing United

1.67

KV Mechelen

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seraing United+0.00on par

KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seraing United ↓

KV Mechelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Seraing United or draw

57%

Seraing United or KV Mechelen

74%

Draw or KV Mechelen

69%

Winning margin

Seraing United wins by 2+

13%

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Seraing United 1+ goals

70%

Seraing United 2+ goals

34%

Seraing United 3+ goals

12%

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

77%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

43%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Seraing United (draw refunded)

42%

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seraing United at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seraing United attack 0.69 + KV Mechelen defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.21

KV Mechelen attack 1.25 + Seraing United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Seraing United scores more

31%

level

26%

KV Mechelen scores more

43%

KV Mechelen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

G. Dietsch

Seraing United · G

8.0

Match Events

14'

M. Mouandilmadji↳ Y. Maziz

45+1'

Sandy Walsh

55'

Rob Schoofs

61'

N. Storm← G. Hairemans

61'

G. Engvall← F. Druijf

69'

75'

75'

75'

75'

80'

89'

90+3'

F. D'Onofrio← A. Jallow

90+2'

O. Kaya← K. Mrabti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeraingKV

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots10

6Corners6

18Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target4

4Off Target2

2Blocked4

5Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

356Total Passes539

254Accurate Passes418

71%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1