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Seraing United vs KV Mechelen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Seraing United
Seraing United
FT
0 – 0
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
7/25/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade du Pairay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Seraing United30%
×Draw32%
KV Mechelen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seraing United
0.88
KV Mechelen
1.02

KV Mechelen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Seraing United
0.33
KV Mechelen
1.71

allows per match

Seraing United
0.33
KV Mechelen
1.43

finishing

Seraing United+0.00on par
KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seraing United ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Seraing United or draw
62%
Seraing United or KV Mechelen
68%
Draw or KV Mechelen
70%

Winning margin

Seraing United wins by 2+
10%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Seraing United 1+ goals
59%
Seraing United 2+ goals
22%
Seraing United 3+ goals
6%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
64%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
27%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Seraing United (draw refunded)
45%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seraing United at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seraing United attack 0.33 + KV Mechelen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.88

KV Mechelen attack 1.71 + Seraing United defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Seraing United scores more
30%
level
32%
KV Mechelen scores more
38%

KV Mechelen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seraing United vs KV Mechelen

Seraing United and KV Mechelen drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du Pairay in Seraing.