KV Mechelen 2–3 Seraing United: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Seraing United

S. Walsh 44'

T. Peyre 27'

M. Mouandilmadji 81', 71' (pen)

Y. Thoelen 22' (OG)

9/3/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 7AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

KV Mechelen53%

×Draw22%

Seraing United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchSeraing United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.27

KV Mechelen

1.96

Seraing United

1.27

KV Mechelen creates 54% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 36 away

1.72

creates per match

1.11

1.43

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.72

Seraing United

1.11

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.43

Seraing United

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Seraing United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Seraing United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

75%

KV Mechelen or Seraing United

78%

Draw or Seraing United

47%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

31%

Seraing United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

86%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

58%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

31%

Seraing United 1+ goals

72%

Seraing United 2+ goals

36%

Seraing United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

68%

Seraing United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.43 · 133 matches

Seraing United away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.72 + Seraing United defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.96

Seraing United attack 1.11 + KV Mechelen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

53%

level

22%

Seraing United scores more

25%

KV Mechelen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

G. Hairemans

KV Mechelen · M

8.2

Match Events

13'

Julien Ngoy

22'

Y. ThoelenOwn goal

25'

Marius Mouandilmadji

27'

T. Peyre↳ D. Wouters

44'

S. Walsh↳ G. Hairemans

50'

Dries Wouters

60'

Sérgio Conceição← D. Opare

60'

S. Elisor← A. Ba

60'

L. Abanda← M. Poaty

71'

N. Storm← J. Ngoy

71'

M. MouandilmadjiPenalty

75'

Abdoulaye Sylla

81'

M. Mouandilmadji↳ M. Cachbach

86'

S. Oum Gouet← J. Vanlerberghe

86'

J. Hernández← D. Wouters

90'

T. Raemaekers← T. Peyre

90'

M. Sambu← A. Bernier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KVSeraing

Overview

68%Possession32%

9Total Shots6

9Corners3

14Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots6

4On Target2

5Off Target3

0Blocked1

8Inside Box5

1Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

542Total Passes260

449Accurate Passes178

83%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1