Seraing United 0–1 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Seraing United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cercle Brugge

10/18/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 13Stade du Pairay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Seraing United31%

×Draw26%

Cercle Brugge43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seraing UnitedExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.42

Seraing United

1.15

Cercle Brugge

1.42

Cercle Brugge creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 141 away

0.69

creates per match

1.16

1.67

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Seraing United

0.69

Cercle Brugge

1.16

allows per match

Seraing United

1.67

Cercle Brugge

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seraing United+0.00on par

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seraing United ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Seraing United or draw

57%

Seraing United or Cercle Brugge

74%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

69%

Winning margin

Seraing United wins by 2+

12%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Seraing United 1+ goals

68%

Seraing United 2+ goals

32%

Seraing United 3+ goals

11%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

76%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

41%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Seraing United (draw refunded)

41%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seraing United at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.60 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seraing United attack 0.69 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cercle Brugge attack 1.16 + Seraing United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Seraing United scores more

31%

level

26%

Cercle Brugge scores more

43%

Cercle Brugge at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff