Cercle Brugge 2–0 Seraing United: Result & Stats

Cercle Brugge

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Seraing United

Leonardo Lopes 45'

D. Hotič 20'

12/14/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 19Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cercle Brugge50%

×Draw23%

Seraing United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle BruggeExpected goals in this matchSeraing United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.27

Cercle Brugge

1.81

Seraing United

1.27

Cercle Brugge creates 43% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 36 away

1.44

creates per match

1.11

1.43

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Cercle Brugge

1.44

Seraing United

1.11

allows per match

Cercle Brugge

1.43

Seraing United

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Seraing United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Seraing United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw

73%

Cercle Brugge or Seraing United

77%

Draw or Seraing United

50%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

28%

Seraing United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

84%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

54%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

27%

Seraing United 1+ goals

72%

Seraing United 2+ goals

36%

Seraing United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

65%

Seraing United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 141 matches

Seraing United away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.44 + Seraing United defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.81

Seraing United attack 1.11 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more

50%

level

23%

Seraing United scores more

27%

Cercle Brugge at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Leonardo Lopes

Cercle Brugge · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

D. Hotič

29'

Leonardo Lopes

45'

Leonardo Lopes

46'

C. Vanhoutte← O. Deman

55'

F. Sambu← A. Bernier

55'

M. Mouandilmadji← D. Del Fabro

62'

Yahya Nadrani

66'

M. Poaty← G. Kilota

73'

K. Denkey← Álex Millán

77'

T. Pierrot← S. Lahssaini

78'

Sousa← Leonardo Lopes

89'

A. Sampers← D. Hotič

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CercleSeraing

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots7

5Corners5

19Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots7

5On Target1

7Off Target3

0Blocked3

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

312Total Passes425

186Accurate Passes298

60%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0