Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cercle Brugge vs Seraing United — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Seraing United
Seraing United
3/4/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 28Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cercle Brugge50%
×Draw23%
Seraing United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.82
Seraing United
1.27

Cercle Brugge creates 43% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 36 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.45
Seraing United
1.11

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.43
Seraing United
2.19

finishing

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par
Seraing United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Seraing United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
73%
Cercle Brugge or Seraing United
77%
Draw or Seraing United
50%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
28%
Seraing United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
84%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
54%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
27%
Seraing United 1+ goals
72%
Seraing United 2+ goals
36%
Seraing United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
65%
Seraing United (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 142 matches

Seraing United away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Seraing United defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.82

Seraing United attack 1.11 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
50%
level
23%
Seraing United scores more
27%

Cercle Brugge at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 3–1 Seraing United

Cercle Brugge beat Seraing United 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.