Septemvri Sofia 1–1 CSKA 1948: Result & Stats

Septemvri Sofia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CSKA 1948

Vitinho 21'

B. Karagaren 15'

9/25/2024

First League · Round 3Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Septemvri Sofia30%

×Draw26%

CSKA 194843%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SofiaExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.44

Septemvri Sofia

1.16

CSKA 1948

1.44

CSKA 1948 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.37

creates per match

1.29

1.59

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.37

CSKA 1948

1.29

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.59

CSKA 1948

0.94

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Septemvri Sofia-0.60scores less

CSKA 1948+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

CSKA 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw

57%

Septemvri Sofia or CSKA 1948

74%

Draw or CSKA 1948

70%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

12%

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

69%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

32%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

11%

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

76%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

42%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

41%

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 13 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.37 + CSKA 1948 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

CSKA 1948 attack 1.29 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more

30%

level

26%

CSKA 1948 scores more

43%

CSKA 1948 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

B. Karagaren

21'

Vitinho

42'

Vitinho

46'

K. Serber← G. Varbanov

52'

Thalis Cantanhede

53'

Y. Serdiuk← M. Ilievski

62'

J. Da Sylva← Vitinho

67'

Octávio← Thalis

68'

S. Aleksandrov← Cassiano Bouzon

72'

Dimitar Sheytanov

73'

Borislav Rupanov

79'

F. Steponavičius← Jordan Gutiérrez

84'

Yevhen Serdyuk

90+1'

Asen Chandarov

90+3'

F. Ellé Essouma← M. Morán

Septemvri4-2-3-1

CSKA4-2-3-1

40

▼

Ilievski

10

Kirilov

7

▼

Thalis

9

⚽

22

28

2

91

14

11

▼

Bouzon

33

Bozhev

21

Sheytanov

27

▼

6

4

5

9

8

▼

Morán

22

⚽

▼

Vitinho

11

Rupanov

19

Mitkov

24

▼

Gutiérrez

Manager: N. Mitov

46'▲K. Serber←▼G. Varbanov

62'▲J. Da Sylva←▼Vitinho

79'▲F. Steponavičius←▼Jordan Gutiérrez

90+3'▲F. Ellé Essouma←▼M. Morán

Septemvri Sofia substitutes

16Serber14Sylva20Steponavičius28Essouma7Drosev13Kerkez18Önaşçı23Velichkovski12Ivanov

Manager: V. Iliev

53'▲Y. Serdiuk←▼M. Ilievski

67'▲Octávio←▼Thalis

68'▲S. Aleksandrov←▼Cassiano Bouzon

CSKA 1948 substitutes

25Serdiuk61Octávio77Aleksandrov1Marinov6Iliev16Atanasov21Tsenov26Markov31Rapnouil