CSKA 1948 2–0 Septemvri Sofia: Result & Stats

CSKA 1948

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Septemvri Sofia

Y. Serdiuk 90+5'

M. Ilievski 9'

12/3/2024

First League · Round 18Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CSKA 194850%

×Draw26%

Septemvri Sofia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948Expected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.01

CSKA 1948

1.54

Septemvri Sofia

1.01

CSKA 1948 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.11

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

CSKA 1948

1.11

Septemvri Sofia

0.96

allows per match

CSKA 1948

1.06

Septemvri Sofia

1.96

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

CSKA 1948-0.11scores less

Septemvri Sofia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw

75%

CSKA 1948 or Septemvri Sofia

74%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

50%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

25%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

79%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

45%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

20%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

64%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

27%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

67%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 14 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.11 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.54

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.96 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more

50%

level

26%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

25%

CSKA 1948 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Ilievski

17'

Jonathan Carlos Pereira

20'

41'

58'

58'

58'

60'

Cassiano Bouzon← Octávio

60'

N. Pišćević← M. Boychev

62'

M. Morán← Alfons Amade

63'

Jordan Gutiérrez← K. Serber

65'

Victor Ochayi

68'

Petar Vitanov

70'

M. Achol← B. Fourrier

78'

Y. Serdiuk← M. Ilievski

88'

Dudu← B. Karagaren

89'

Steeve Furtado← Johnatan

90'

Vitinho← M. Mitkov

90+5'

Y. Serdiuk

CSKA3-5-2

Septemvri5-3-2

15

▼

Fourrier

16

▼

Serber

11

Rupanov

17

▼

Amade

9

Chandarov

19

▼

18

26

6

5

12

1

21

22

14

10

58

▼

Boychev

61

▼

Octávio

34

Vitanov

2

▼

Johnatan

40

⚽

▼

Ilievski

9

▼

Karagaren

Manager: I. Ivanov

60'▲Cassiano Bouzon←▼Octávio

60'▲N. Pišćević←▼M. Boychev

78'▲Y. Serdiuk←▼M. Ilievski

88'▲Dudu←▼B. Karagaren

89'▲Steeve Furtado←▼Johnatan

CSKA 1948 substitutes

11Bouzon28Pišćević25Serdiuk70Dudu19Furtado26Markov33Bozhev91Bidounga

Manager: N. Mitov

62'▲M. Morán←▼Alfons Amade

63'▲Jordan Gutiérrez←▼K. Serber

70'▲M. Achol←▼B. Fourrier

90'▲Vitinho←▼M. Mitkov

Septemvri Sofia substitutes

8Morán24Gutiérrez10Achol22Vitinho7Drosev1Radkov4Hristov21Kehayov