CSKA 1948 2–0 Septemvri Sofia: Result & Stats

CSKA 1948

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Septemvri Sofia

K. Strinski 90'

Thalis 20'

5/11/2025

First League · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CSKA 194850%

×Draw26%

Septemvri Sofia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948Expected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.01

CSKA 1948

1.54

Septemvri Sofia

1.01

CSKA 1948 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.11

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

CSKA 1948

1.11

Septemvri Sofia

0.96

allows per match

CSKA 1948

1.06

Septemvri Sofia

1.96

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

CSKA 1948-0.11scores less

Septemvri Sofia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw

75%

CSKA 1948 or Septemvri Sofia

74%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

50%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

25%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

79%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

45%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

20%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

64%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

27%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

67%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 14 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.11 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.54

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.96 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more

50%

level

26%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

25%

CSKA 1948 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Cassiano Bouzon

CSKA 1948 · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

Thalis

46'

N. Fonkeu← P. Vitanov

67'

K. Serber← V. Ochayi

67'

Jordan Gutiérrez← Moi Parra

69'

Birsent Karagaren

76'

B. Rupanov← B. Fourrier

82'

M. Mitkov← Vitinho

87'

P. Sciortino← Thalis

89'

K. Strinski← B. Karagaren

90+6'

Paolo Sciortino

90+2'

T. Ivanov← Johnatan

90+2'

B. Dimitrov← Y. Serdiuk

90'

K. Strinski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSKASeptemvri

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots14

1.52Expected Goals (xG)0.83

6Corners6

19Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots14

6On Target4

3Off Target5

2Blocked5

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

307Total Passes381

243Accurate Passes318

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3