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Septemvri Sofia vs Chernomorets Balchik — Second League 2018

Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
5/24/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 34Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Septemvri Sofia64%
×Draw21%
Chernomorets Balchik14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia
1.90
Chernomorets Balchik
0.75

Septemvri Sofia creates 153% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 43 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia
2.10
Chernomorets Balchik
0.60

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia
0.90
Chernomorets Balchik
1.70

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par
Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw
86%
Septemvri Sofia or Chernomorets Balchik
79%
Draw or Chernomorets Balchik
36%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
39%
Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
85%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
56%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
29%
Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
53%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
17%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
82%
Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.90 · 58 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 2.10 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.60 + Septemvri Sofia defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more
64%
level
21%
Chernomorets Balchik scores more
14%

Septemvri Sofia at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Sofia vs Chernomorets Balchik

Septemvri Sofia beat Chernomorets Balchik 3-0 in Second League on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dragalevtsi in Sofia.