Septemvri Sofia 4–0 Chernomorets Balchik

Septemvri Sofia

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chernomorets Balchik

3/7/2020

Second League · Round 22Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Septemvri Sofia65%

×Draw21%

Chernomorets Balchik14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SofiaExpected goals in this matchChernomorets Balchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.74

Septemvri Sofia

1.90

Chernomorets Balchik

0.74

Septemvri Sofia creates 157% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 43 away

2.10

creates per match

0.60

0.88

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia

2.10

Chernomorets Balchik

0.60

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia

0.88

Chernomorets Balchik

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw

86%

Septemvri Sofia or Chernomorets Balchik

79%

Draw or Chernomorets Balchik

35%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

39%

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

85%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

56%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

29%

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals

52%

Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals

17%

Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

82%

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 59 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 2.10 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.60 + Septemvri Sofia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more

65%

level

21%

Chernomorets Balchik scores more

14%

Septemvri Sofia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff