Chernomorets Balchik 0–2 Septemvri Sofia

Chernomorets Balchik

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Septemvri Sofia

11/12/2023

Second League · Round 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik32%

×Draw28%

Septemvri Sofia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets BalchikExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.27

Chernomorets Balchik

1.11

Septemvri Sofia

1.27

Septemvri Sofia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

1.23

creates per match

1.57

0.98

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik

1.23

Septemvri Sofia

1.57

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik

0.98

Septemvri Sofia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw

60%

Chernomorets Balchik or Septemvri Sofia

72%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

68%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+

13%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals

67%

Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals

30%

Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals

10%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

72%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

36%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)

45%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 1.23 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.57 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more

32%

level

28%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

40%

Septemvri Sofia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff