Septemvri Sofia 1–3 Botev Plovdiv: Result & Stats

Septemvri Sofia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Botev Plovdiv

G. Varbanov 34'

A. Okoflex 90', 9'

Mascote 77'

9/21/2025

First League · Round 9National Stadium Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Septemvri Sofia41%

×Draw25%

Botev Plovdiv34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SofiaExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.35

Septemvri Sofia

1.50

Botev Plovdiv

1.35

Septemvri Sofia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.37

creates per match

1.12

1.59

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.37

Botev Plovdiv

1.12

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.59

Botev Plovdiv

1.62

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia-0.60scores less

Botev Plovdiv+0.05on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Botev Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw

66%

Septemvri Sofia or Botev Plovdiv

75%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv

59%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

20%

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

78%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

44%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

19%

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals

74%

Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals

39%

Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

54%

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 13 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.62 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.37 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.12 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more

41%

level

25%

Botev Plovdiv scores more

34%

Septemvri Sofia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Okoflex↳ N. Minkov

34'

G. Varbanov↳ N. Fontaine

42'

N. Soldo← G. Noga

46'

52'

52'

54'

56'

62'

G. Ivanov← S. Stoichkov

62'

R. Schouten← M. Parra

65'

Enock Kwateng

72'

Sebas Wade

74'

S. Vasilev← G. Varbanov

75'

Y. Baurenski← N. Fontaine

75'

S. Petkov← E. Martinov

77'

Mascote↳ N. Minkov

78'

V. Ozornwafor← K. Serber

86'

Kubrat Onashchi

90'

A. Okoflex↳ T. Nedelev

Septemvri

Botev

29

Naumov

22

Kwateng

2

▼

Noga

87

▼

Petrov

6

Yordanov

17

A

Minkov

25

Abraham

8

A

Nedelev

27

▼

Martinov

23

⚽2

Okoflex

9

▼

Mitkov

21

Georgiev

7

▼

4

3

13

27

⚽

▼

Varbanov

28

▼

Stoichkov

6

Ochayi

10

▼

Serber

17

A

▼

Fontaine

9

Fourrier

62'▲G. Ivanov←▼S. Stoichkov

62'▲R. Schouten←▼M. Parra

74'▲S. Vasilev←▼G. Varbanov

75'▲Y. Baurenski←▼N. Fontaine

78'▲V. Ozornwafor←▼K. Serber

Septemvri Sofia substitutes

12Vladimir20Tomovski26Ozornwafor33Ivanov29Atanasov5Baurenski23Schouten11Dzhamov14Vasilev

42'▲N. Soldo←▼G. Noga

46'▲Mascote←▼D. Mitkov

56'▲N. Iliev←▼S. Petrov

75'▲S. Petkov←▼E. Martinov

Botev Plovdiv substitutes

1Slavkov3John4Soldo5Georgiev7Iliev13Tsonov20Petkov30Mascote42Videv