Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia — First League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 16+ matches
Botev Plovdiv45%
Septemvri Sofia30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Botev Plovdiv creates 27% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Botev Plovdiv ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.46 · 17 matches
Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Botev Plovdiv attack 1.12 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.54
Septemvri Sofia attack 0.96 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Botev Plovdiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Levski SofiaBotev Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
Beroe
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
Vitosha BistritsaSeptemvri Sofia
Dunav Ruse
Vereya Stara ZagoraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Botev Plovdiv host Septemvri Sofia on Tuesday, 3 March 2026 at 16:30. The match is part of the First League 2026/2027 season.
First League: Botev Plovdiv 2–0 Septemvri Sofia
Botev Plovdiv beat Septemvri Sofia 2-0 in First League on March 3, 2026.
Goals: Mascote (58'), Pedro Igor (62').
Botev Plovdiv controlled possession (60%) and registered 23 shots to 7.
The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv.