Botev Plovdiv 3–0 Septemvri Sofia: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Septemvri Sofia

J. Batigi 89'

S. Akere 60'

I. Popov 38'

4/12/2025

First League · Round 29Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Botev Plovdiv45%

×Draw25%

Septemvri Sofia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev PlovdivExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Botev Plovdiv

1.54

Septemvri Sofia

1.21

Botev Plovdiv creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

1.12

creates per match

0.96

1.46

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv

1.12

Septemvri Sofia

0.96

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv

1.46

Septemvri Sofia

1.96

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.06on par

Septemvri Sofia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw

70%

Botev Plovdiv or Septemvri Sofia

75%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

55%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+

23%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals

79%

Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals

45%

Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals

20%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

70%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

34%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)

60%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.46 · 17 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.12 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.54

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.96 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more

45%

level

25%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

30%

Botev Plovdiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

52

J. Amofa

Botev Plovdiv · D

8.3

Match Events

38'

41'

42'

60'

63'

Moi Parra← M. Polendakov

63'

M. Mitkov← G. Varbanov

76'

A. Chernev← K. Balogiannis

76'

A. Maraš← I. Popov

83'

J. Batigi← E. Ukaki

84'

N. Iliev← S. Akere

88'

G. Zlatanov← N. Minkov

89'

J. Batigi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotevSeptemvri

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots9

2.39Expected Goals (xG)1.34

7Corners5

14Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots9

4On Target2

10Off Target1

3Blocked5

15Inside Box8

2Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

486Total Passes388

415Accurate Passes303

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2