Septemvri Simitli 0–1 FK Minyor Pernik

Septemvri Simitli

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FK Minyor Pernik

3/6/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 23Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Septemvri Simitli37%

×Draw28%

FK Minyor Pernik35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SimitliExpected goals in this matchFK Minyor Pernik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.19

Septemvri Simitli

1.22

FK Minyor Pernik

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 45 away

1.55

creates per match

1.49

0.88

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli

1.55

FK Minyor Pernik

1.49

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli

0.88

FK Minyor Pernik

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw

65%

Septemvri Simitli or FK Minyor Pernik

72%

Draw or FK Minyor Pernik

63%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

16%

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

70%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

34%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

12%

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

70%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

33%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

51%

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more

37%

level

28%

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

35%

Septemvri Simitli at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff