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FK Minyor Pernik vs Septemvri Simitli — Second League 2018

FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
8/3/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 3Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik56%
×Draw25%
Septemvri Simitli19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Minyor Pernik
1.59
Septemvri Simitli
0.80

FK Minyor Pernik creates 99% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik
1.24
Septemvri Simitli
0.76

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik
0.85
Septemvri Simitli
1.94

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw
81%
FK Minyor Pernik or Septemvri Simitli
75%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
44%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
30%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
80%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
47%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
21%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
55%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
19%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
75%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.85 · 84 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.24 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.76 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more
56%
level
25%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
19%

FK Minyor Pernik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: FK Minyor Pernik 4–2 Septemvri Simitli

FK Minyor Pernik beat Septemvri Simitli 4-2 in Second League on August 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.