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Septemvri Simitli vs FK Minyor Pernik — Second League 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
12/11/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 22Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Septemvri Simitli47%
×Draw25%
FK Minyor Pernik27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
1.58
FK Minyor Pernik
1.14

Septemvri Simitli creates 39% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 85 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.53
FK Minyor Pernik
0.87

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.41
FK Minyor Pernik
1.62

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
73%
Septemvri Simitli or FK Minyor Pernik
75%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
53%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
24%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
79%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
47%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
21%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
68%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
32%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
63%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.53 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

FK Minyor Pernik attack 0.87 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
47%
level
25%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
27%

Septemvri Simitli at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Simitli vs FK Minyor Pernik

Septemvri Simitli and FK Minyor Pernik drew 2-2 in Second League on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.