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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga II 2018

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
12/1/2025Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul Sepsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe52%
×Draw26%
Politehnica Iasi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.48
Politehnica Iasi
0.83

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 78% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 41 away

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.73
Politehnica Iasi
1.07

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.60
Politehnica Iasi
1.24

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw
79%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or Politehnica Iasi
74%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
48%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
27%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
77%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
43%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
19%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
56%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
20%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
71%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.73 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.07 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
52%
level
26%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
21%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–0 Politehnica Iasi

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe beat Politehnica Iasi 1-0 in Liga II on December 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Sepsi in Sfantu Gheorghe.