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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga I 2026

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
1/19/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 22Arena Sepsi OSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe51%
×Draw26%
Politehnica Iasi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.54
Politehnica Iasi
0.94

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 64% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.42
Politehnica Iasi
0.87

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.00
Politehnica Iasi
1.67

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw
77%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or Politehnica Iasi
74%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
49%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
26%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
79%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
45%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
20%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
61%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
24%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
69%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.42 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
51%
level
26%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
23%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 6–0 Politehnica Iasi

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe beat Politehnica Iasi 6-0 in Liga I on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Sepsi OSK in Sfântu Gheorghe.