Politehnica Iasi 1–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Politehnica Iasi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

11/9/2024

Liga I · Round 16Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Politehnica Iasi35%

×Draw28%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Politehnica IasiExpected goals in this matchSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.24

Politehnica Iasi

1.18

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 135 away

1.11

creates per match

1.18

1.30

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.11

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.18

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.30

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw

62%

Politehnica Iasi or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

72%

Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

65%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

14%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

69%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

33%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

12%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals

71%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals

35%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

48%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more

35%

level

28%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more

38%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff