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Selfoss vs Fjolnir — 2. Deild 2025

Selfoss
Selfoss
Preview
14:00
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
8/15/20262. Deild2. Deild · Round 17
Big match
51%
Selfoss
model favours
51%20%29%

100% of Selfoss’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
79%
over 2.5 goals
76%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Selfoss51%
×Draw20%
Fjolnir29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selfoss
2.42
Fjolnir
1.81

Selfoss creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Selfoss
2.50
Fjolnir
2.33

allows per match

Selfoss
1.29
Fjolnir
2.33

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw
71%
Selfoss or Fjolnir
80%
Draw or Fjolnir
49%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+
31%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals
91%
Selfoss 2+ goals
69%
Selfoss 3+ goals
43%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
84%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
54%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)
64%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 2.50 + Fjolnir defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Fjolnir attack 2.33 + Selfoss defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Selfoss scores more
51%
level
20%
Fjolnir scores more
29%

Selfoss at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (100% and 73% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 100% of Selfoss’s matches
  • Fjolnir score first in only 18% of matches
  • Selfoss score first in only 20% of matches
  • Both teams score in 91% of Fjolnir’s matches
  • Fjolnir have scored in 11 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Selfoss
DWDLW
Fjolnir
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Selfoss vs Fjolnir — Match Preview

Selfoss face Fjolnir on August 15, 2026 in this 2. Deild fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.