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Selfoss vs Fjolnir — 1. Deild 2026

Selfoss
Selfoss
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
J. Bodvarsson 34'
D. Ingvarsson 30'
O. Thorhalsson 22'
8/17/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 18JÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Selfoss36%
×Draw22%
Fjolnir42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selfoss
1.71
Fjolnir
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

Selfoss
1.69
Fjolnir
1.94

allows per match

Selfoss
1.77
Fjolnir
1.72

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw
58%
Selfoss or Fjolnir
78%
Draw or Fjolnir
64%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+
18%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals
82%
Selfoss 2+ goals
51%
Selfoss 3+ goals
24%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
84%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
55%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)
46%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 1.69 + Fjolnir defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Fjolnir attack 1.94 + Selfoss defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Selfoss scores more
36%
level
22%
Fjolnir scores more
42%

Fjolnir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
A. Vokes
22'
O. Thorhalsson
26'
H. Hilmarsson
30'
D. Ingvarsson
34'
J. Bodvarsson
40'
H. Hilmarsson← H. Hilmarsson
63'
N. Gil← Tanke
63'
F. Brynjolfsson← F. Brynjolfsson
70'
A. Vokes← A. Vokes
70'
H. Willard← H. Willard
70'
B. Gudjonsson← O. Thorhalsson
70'
B. T. Hafstein← B. T. Hafstein
83'
B. Bergsson
86'
A. Sigursteinsson
89'
K. Arnarsson
90+2'
A. Arnason← D. Ingvarsson
90+3'
A. Arnason

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Selfoss 1–2 Fjolnir

Fjolnir beat Selfoss 2-1 in 1. Deild on August 17, 2025.

Goals: O. Thorhalsson (22'), D. Ingvarsson (30'), J. Bodvarsson (34').

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.