Fjolnir 4–2 Selfoss: Result & Stats | Cup

Fjolnir

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Selfoss

J. Arnarsson 89'

K. Arnarsson 73'

M. Hilmarsson 57'

D. Axelsson 34'

Gonzalo Zamorano 81'

V. Jóhannsson 7'

4/23/2024

Cup · Round of 32Egilshöll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fjolnir30%

×Draw19%

Selfoss50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchSelfoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

2.54

Fjolnir

1.97

Selfoss

2.54

Selfoss creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.33

creates per match

2.40

2.67

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Fjolnir

2.33

Selfoss

2.40

allows per match

Fjolnir

2.67

Selfoss

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Selfoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Selfoss →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

50%

Fjolnir or Selfoss

81%

Draw or Selfoss

70%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

16%

Selfoss wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

86%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

58%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

31%

Selfoss 1+ goals

92%

Selfoss 2+ goals

72%

Selfoss 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

38%

Selfoss (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Selfoss away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 2.33 + Selfoss defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Selfoss attack 2.40 + Fjolnir defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fjolnir scores more

30%

level

19%

Selfoss scores more

50%

Selfoss at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

V. Jóhannsson

18'

J. Petursson

20'

J. Juliusson

34'

D. Axelsson

43'

B. Berndsen

57'

M. Hilmarsson

66'

H. Jónsson← M. Hilmarsson

66'

J. Arnarsson← A. Harðarson

71'

E. Heiðarsson← A. Birgisson

73'

K. Arnarsson

77'

Alexander Vokes← V. Jóhannsson

79'

Ó. Thorlacius← B. Berndsen

79'

V. Hjálmarsson← D. Ingvarsson

81'

Gonzalo Zamorano

84'

G. Gudmundsson

88'

B. Hafstein← R. Haraldsson

89'

J. Arnarsson

Fjolnir

Selfoss

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

66'▲H. Jónsson←▼M. Hilmarsson

66'▲J. Arnarsson←▼A. Harðarson

79'▲Ó. Thorlacius←▼B. Berndsen

79'▲V. Hjálmarsson←▼D. Ingvarsson

88'▲B. Hafstein←▼R. Haraldsson

Fjolnir substitutes

JónssonArnarssonThorlaciusHjálmarssonHafsteinHarðarsonReynisson

Manager: B. Johannsson

71'▲E. Heiðarsson←▼A. Birgisson

77'▲Alexander Vokes←▼V. Jóhannsson

Selfoss substitutes

HeiðarssonVokesAuðunssonKjartanssonVokesEinarssonHarðarson