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Fjolnir vs Selfoss — 1. Deild 2026

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Selfoss
Selfoss
F. Brynjólfsson 89'
Aron Lucas Vokes 41'
6/9/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 7Fjölnisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fjolnir43%
×Draw23%
Selfoss34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
1.75
Selfoss
1.52

Fjolnir creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
1.50
Selfoss
0.83

allows per match

Fjolnir
2.21
Selfoss
2.00

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
Selfoss+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Selfoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
66%
Fjolnir or Selfoss
77%
Draw or Selfoss
57%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
23%
Selfoss wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
83%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
52%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
25%
Selfoss 1+ goals
78%
Selfoss 2+ goals
45%
Selfoss 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
56%
Selfoss (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Selfoss away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.50 + Selfoss defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Selfoss attack 0.83 + Fjolnir defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fjolnir scores more
43%
level
23%
Selfoss scores more
34%

Fjolnir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
D. Ingvarsson
41'
Aron Lucas Vokes
89'
F. Brynjólfsson
90+5'
R. Haraldsson
Fjolnir
Selfoss
Ú. Jökulsson
Manager: Ú. Jökulsson
B. Johannsson
Manager: B. Johannsson

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs Selfoss

Selfoss beat Fjolnir 2-0 in 1. Deild on June 9, 2025.

Goals: Aron Lucas Vokes (41'), F. Brynjólfsson (89').

The match was played at Fjölnisvöllur in Reykjavík.