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Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — Liga Leumit 2019

Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1/1/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 15Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona30%
×Draw28%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.03
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.27

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.39
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.50

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.05
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.67

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw
58%
Sektzia Nes Tziona or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
72%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
70%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
11%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
64%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
28%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
9%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
72%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
36%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
42%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.39 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.50 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
30%
level
28%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
42%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Sektzia Nes Tziona 0–1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Sektzia Nes Tziona 1-0 in Liga Leumit on January 1, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.