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Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Sektzia Nes Tziona — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
4/22/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 4Kiryat-Shmona Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona45%
×Draw27%
Sektzia Nes Tziona28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.38
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.04

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 33% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.22
Sektzia Nes Tziona
0.79

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.29
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.53

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par
Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Sektzia Nes Tziona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw
72%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Sektzia Nes Tziona
73%
Draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona
55%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
21%
Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
75%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
40%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
16%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
65%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
28%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
61%
Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.29 · 101 matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.22 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 0.79 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
45%
level
27%
Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
28%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–1 Sektzia Nes Tziona

Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Sektzia Nes Tziona drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Kiryat-Shmona Municipal Stadium in Kiryat-Shmona.